Drop in lending

"Eastern Europe is in the throes of a very deep downturn, and European banks are still exposed to them, even if the loan losses are related to deep recession rather than to a crisis, as was feared six months ago," says Ken Wattret, Europe economist at BNP Paribas in London.

Wattrett points out that even if banks in Germany, Austria and Italy stay solvent, lending to the corporate sector across Europe is down 6% year-on-year and there is every indication that it will be reduced still further.

And there's more. For the last decade or so Eastern European economies have provided a ready and growing market for German goods.

"That's not coming back," says Wattret, "not for a long time. And that means one of the key drivers of the European economy, the German exports to the east, is severely curtailed."

Germany may well not be in recession but the nature of the recovery and the scant prospects for its corporate base hardly justify a 34% gain in the Dax since March, while a 43% gain in the Italian MIB Index, and a 50% gain in the Austrian market are starting to starting to take on a distinctly bubbly appearance.